BHP Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant said the international copper market could enter a sustained supply deficit from 2028, with the shortfall by the mid-2030s equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines comparable in size to the world's largest copper mine, Escondida in Chile. Speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant explained that the increase in annual supply needed to satisfy growing consumption is not being matched by new mine development.
Declining production from existing deposits is already pressuring supply, making new mine development necessary to maintain output even before future demand growth is considered, Pant said. The Escondida mine, which BHP operates, is currently the biggest producer of the red metal globally and serves as the benchmark for the scale of new supply required.
Traditional sources of consumption, including population growth, industrial development and urbanization, are increasingly being joined by expanding digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, electricity network investment and the global shift towards cleaner energy. According to Traditional sources of consumption analysis, these drivers are expected to push annual global copper demand to more than 50 million metric tons by 2050. Data centers alone could consume roughly 3 million metric tons per year over the same period.
Pant distinguished between the anticipated long-term supply gap and immediate market shortages, noting that temporary imbalances can develop when mining companies fail to meet production targets. Recent mine disruptions and operational difficulties have already weighed on output, while copper concentrate availability has become increasingly constrained. The International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth for the year to 1.3%, reflecting downward revisions for Indonesia, China and Chile, though it expects growth to strengthen to over 3% in 2027.
BHP, the world's largest copper producer, has been expanding its focus on the metal. Copper accounted for over 50% of its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year. The company expects its internally developed projects to increase attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035, targeting average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years. Planned growth initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as development of the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S.
If the predicted structural shortage materializes, entities such as Numa Numa Resources Inc. could benefit from added demand and rising prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production level. For readers tracking raw materials mining, the announcement signals that copper supply tightness may persist well beyond temporary disruptions, reinforcing the strategic value of new mine development and exploration. The outlook was reported by MiningNewsWire, a communications platform focused on the global mining and resources sectors and part of the Dynamic Brand Portfolio at IBN.
